سيناريو مفاوضات غزة يتكرّر… السبب الوحيد للتسوية قبل الانتخابات الأميركية

The Gaza Negotiation Scenario Repeats: The Sole Factor for a Ceasefire Before U.S. Elections

U.S. presidential advisors Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk arrive in Israel today, bringing a draft agreement with provisions that have already been leaked, particularly from the Israeli side, in a strategy reminiscent of Israel's approach during negotiations with Hamas.

Political analyst Ghassan Rifi discussed the situation with “Lebanon Debate,” stating, “There are numerous leaks regarding a potential ceasefire agreement, similar to the leaks that occurred when U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brokered a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas. Hamas often found itself surprised by the details of these agreements and would later deny their involvement. Now, a similar scenario seems to be unfolding with Lebanon.”

Rifi questions Netanyahu's position: “On what basis will Netanyahu halt the conflict? Has he achieved his stated goals? Has he managed to portray a victory, especially after the symbolic assassinations of martyrs Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Al-Sinwar? With the resurgence of resistance, Sheikh Naeem Qassem's election as Secretary-General, and the ongoing military operations in Lebanon and Gaza, how can Netanyahu justify negotiating with Hamas over prisoner exchanges while previously declaring he would destroy the movement?”

Rifi believes these U.S.-origin leaks “hold little weight,” given Lebanon's firm position on prioritizing a ceasefire. Both Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri have reiterated Lebanon's commitment to implementing UN Resolution 1701 and refraining from infringing on UNIFIL's mandate.

Hochstein, a seasoned expert on Lebanon, is reportedly well aware of Lebanon's bargaining limits, as outlined in Prime Minister Mikati's speech at the United Nations, and Lebanon is unlikely to shift its stance.

According to Rifi, Hochstein will present Lebanon’s position to Israel, and Netanyahu, who has already scaled back his demands after failing to achieve his objectives, has resorted to lofty rhetoric about defeating regional resistance. However, the Israeli public now understands that these campaigns primarily serve his personal interests.

Rifi adds that “the battleground is decisive at this point, and negotiations are reaching an advanced stage. The Israeli public is increasingly inclined to turn against Netanyahu, whom many view as one of Israel's worst prime ministers. Lebanese resistance forces are revitalized and capable of delivering a powerful blow that would compel Netanyahu to accept negotiations on Lebanese terms, similar to what happened in 2006.”

He concludes, “Such a blow, if delivered before the U.S. elections, could push Netanyahu toward a ceasefire, as the daily operations by resistance forces at the border and the losses Israel is enduring exert mounting pressure. There is a serious debate within Israel about the purpose of this conflict, which is failing to meet its objectives. Continued resilience and resistance operations may lead to a ceasefire before the U.S. elections. If not, we may witness a significant escalation from both sides after the elections, with the situation potentially culminating in a full-scale confrontation.”